Battery Aging Capacity Forecast — Estimate Future Usable Energy
Project battery capacity over time using a transparent degradation scenario and compare the forecast against a minimum capacity requirement.
Battery aging assumptions
How battery aging is modeled
This planner applies two user-selected degradation mechanisms: annual capacity reduction and cycle-related reduction. The values are intentionally user-defined so the forecast can be aligned with a project scenario rather than an invented universal curve.
Why degradation is compounding
Applying the annual percentage to remaining capacity means each year starts from the previous year's forecast rather than the original nameplate capacity.
Cycle loss
The cycle field provides a separate scenario adjustment. Because real cycle aging depends on depth, temperature and battery chemistry, it should be treated as an analytical assumption.
Reserve threshold
The forecast reports usable capacity after the selected depth of discharge and reserve margin, then compares it with the minimum acceptable capacity.
Limitations
Real battery aging can be non-linear, calendar-dependent and strongly affected by temperature, SOC and cycling profile.
Frequently asked questions
Can annual degradation be zero?
Yes, producing a flat annual component.
Can the cycle-loss assumption be zero?
Yes. The annual degradation scenario can then be used alone.
Does this predict manufacturer warranty life?
No. It is a transparent planning scenario.